Tomorrow’s Too Late

As a country prone to earthquakes, Aotearoa New Zealand faces significant danger from unreinforced masonry (URM). The Kaikōura Earthquake of 2016 was a stark reminder of just how vulnerable our cities are, particularly Wellington, where many URM structures still stand unstrengthened. Despite further lessons learned from Christchurch’s devastation in 2011, many buildings remain unrepaired, leaving lives at risk.

Mike Jeffery, who was part of the critical response efforts after both the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake and Kaikōura, as well as supporting the response in Nepal, has a clear message: tomorrow is too late. Waiting for the next disaster will not only cost lives but also heritage and massive financial losses.

This article is the first in a series that shares insights from those working on the front lines to address New Zealand’s earthquake-prone building stock.

Standing in the Rubble

Stepping into an earthquake-damaged building is a visceral experience – an experience Mike Jeffery is all too familiar with. After the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake, Mike found himself standing in the rubble of the city’s CBD, tasked with working as part of a team responsible for deciding which buildings were too dangerous to save.

“You feel the weight of those decisions,” he says, “knowing that lives depend on getting it right.” Christchurch was a sobering lesson on the consequences of poor building records and the dangers posed by URM.

Mike’s experience didn’t stop in New Zealand. He travelled to Nepal in the wake of their devastating earthquakes, working alongside engineers to train local teams on safety practices for demolition and structural assessments.

When the Kaikōura Earthquake hit in 2016, Mike was once again called into action – this time in Wellington, where the earthquake exposed the vulnerability of many buildings with URM. Despite the lessons from Christchurch, many buildings in Wellington remained unstrengthened. Mike supported Wellington City Council and contractors, in navigating the tightrope between heritage preservation and public safety.

Through these experiences, Mike developed a deep belief that proactive work is not just about protecting structures; it’s about protecting lives. It’s a lesson that has moved beyond the technical and academic but has taken a very real, personal toll. Mike is open about the personal toll, stemming from the traumatic events of Christchurch, and it has only reinforced this conviction - for Mike, every URM building represents an opportunity to prevent future loss.

Inaction – Too Great a Risk, Act Now

Nowhere is this more evident than in Wellington, where the Kaikōura Earthquake exposed the vulnerabilities of the capital's ageing building stock. While some progress has been made, there are still a large number of buildings in the city that do not meet modern earthquake resilience standards.

Safety Risk

The consequences of inaction are clear. Drawing from his extensive experience, Mike warns that waiting until the next earthquake will only amplify the costs—both human and financial.

“If we don’t act now, we’re not just risking buildings, we’re risking lives,” he stresses.

But the risk doesn’t stop at the risk to the public. First responders, tasked with entering these buildings post-disaster, are also placed in unnecessary danger. Mike frequently emphasizes that proper building assessments and strengthening can create safer environments, not only for the public but also for the emergency workers who are called to the front lines after an earthquake.

“If these buildings aren’t addressed before the next event,” Mike says, “we’re not just putting civilians at risk, we’re endangering those who come to help.”

Financial Risk

It’s not just about the immediate risk to life, though. The financial impact of inaction is significant. While retrofitting buildings now involves an upfront cost, waiting for another earthquake will result in far greater expenses. Building owners could face fines, demolition costs, and even lawsuits, while insurers may be left grappling with massive claims for damages and losses. In Christchurch, the economic aftermath of the earthquake was devastating, with many businesses unable to recover, and property owners left with substantial financial burdens. Wellington risks following a similar path if the issue is not addressed now.

Heritage Risk

Beyond the human and financial costs, inaction also threatens the city’s cultural heritage. Many of Wellington’s historic buildings are URM structures. Without strengthening, these buildings could be lost forever in a future earthquake. Once they’re gone, no amount of rebuilding can replace the history and character they represent.

Act Now – Save lives and Money Later

The key takeaway from Mike Jeffery’s extensive experience is the absolute necessity of early intervention.

“Strengthening buildings before disaster strikes is the only way to avoid the heartbreak of losing lives and the financial ruin that often follows,” says Mike. By addressing structural weaknesses now, we can prevent the devastating effects that have been seen in the past.

The Path Forward – Multiple Buildings, a Single Programme

The good news is that the path forward has already been laid out and tested with projects like the New Regent Street Redevelopment in Christchurch and with Wellington City Council (in partnership with key stakeholders) making significant strides in through their URM Programme.

The key to success in these projects was the move away from seeing the work as multiple individual projects, but to combine these into a single programme of work that allowed resources and a single view to be leveraged across all sites. This approach proved highly successful in both the New Regent Street Redevelopment and with the Wellington City Council’s URM Programme. A key finding in the URM Programme report to WCC found that the “move to a more formally structured project management regime for the URM Programme and bringing in additional resources with project management and building skills… made a discernible difference to the outcome.” The report also found that a more active-leadership approach was beneficial and that having a cross-organisation ‘one-stop-shop’ that could support building owners was critical. The programme approach enables this one-stop-shop and unlocks closer collaboration between central and local government, and between authorities and building owners.

Now, a programme is in place in WCC to support property owners with guidance and funding, and the government has introduced legislative frameworks that set clear deadlines for building upgrades.

It is clear when complex issues with common problems and solutions are pulled together into a single programme of work, resources and learnings can be magnified and significant progress can be made.

These steps show that we are moving in the right direction—but the job is far from done.

For Mike Jeffery, the work of strengthening unreinforced masonry buildings isn’t just another project—it’s personal. Having witnessed the devastation of Christchurch, stood in the rubble of collapsed buildings, felt the aftershocks in highly dangerous conditions, and seen the emotional toll on communities and first responders, Mike understands what’s at stake. His experiences have shown him that preparation is the only way to prevent future tragedy.

Reflecting on his journey, Mike’s message is clear: we cannot afford to wait. The buildings we strengthen today will save lives tomorrow. And it’s not just about protecting structures—it’s about protecting our friends, families, and communities from the kind of loss that lingers for generations.

Every building owner, insurer, and public official has a role to play in making our cities safer.

The opportunity to act is now, before the next disaster strikes, because in the end, it’s not just about bricks and mortar—it’s about the people we safeguard by ensuring these buildings stand strong in the face of whatever comes next.

Wellington and New Zealand’s future doesn’t have to be one of risk and regret—it can be a story of foresight and resilience.